“Risk-based screening, if it describes any partitioning of airline passengers at checkpoints, is a fraud. It doesn’t matter what the criteria are for putting passengers into low-risk and high-risk categories, because the concept is mathematically unsound.
The base rate fallacy is the failure to account for underlying incidence of the condition being tested for. Imagine this hypothetical (and completely fantastical) scenario: that the TSA employs a near-perfect test for risk-based screening, a test that always flags terrorists if they are present and only flags innocent people 1 time out of 10,000. (The TSA’s actual success rate at flagging known terrorists is zero.)
Under these conditions, only one out of every five million people flagged would be a terrorist. This is the base rate fallacy in operation. In other words, for all intents and purposes, every flagged person is a false positive.”
Such a bittersweet letter.
“In June of 1945, Arline Feynman — high-school sweetheart and wife of the hugely influential physicist, Richard Feynman — passed away after succumbing to tuberculosis. She was 25-years-old. 16 months later, in October of 1946, Richard wrote his late wife the following love letter and sealed it in an envelope. It remained unopened until after his death in 1988. “
The official video:
Ron Paul supporters are quietly taking over the GOP. Although Ron Paul has not won the popular vote of a single primary or caucus, he has won the majority of the delegates from Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusettes, Louisiana, and Washington. He’s also on track to win many more–it’s likely that there will eventually be hundreds of Ron Paul delegates at the GOP convention.
While Romney still probably has enough to win, Paul supporters could make things very uncomfortable for him. And Ron Paul supporters have also won positions in key slots of the Republican Party apparatus. For example, a Ron Paul supporter, A.J. Spiker, was elected to be chairman of the Iowa GOP. Even if Paul doesn’t win this year, he’s building a formidable machine that will help pro-liberty candidates (such as his son Rand) win election in the future.
If you’re ever tempted to feel self-pity, may I commend this video to you:
Love is as love does. Love is an act of will — namely, both an intention and an action. Will also implies choice. We do not have to love. We choose to love.
Festo makes some amazing stuff. As someone once said “”That thing looks like it could origami